Evaluation of dynamic regression and artificial neural networks models for real-time hydrological drought forecasting     

Majid Dehghani  Bahram Saghafian  Firoozeh Rivaz  Ahmad Khodadadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(12):266

In this study, application of a class of stochastic dynamic models and a class of artificial intelligence model is reported for the forecasting of real-time hydrological droughts in the Black River basin in the USA. For this purpose, the Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) was adopted in different time scales to represent the hydrological drought index. Six probability distribution functions (PDF) were fitted to the discharge time series to obtain the best fit for SHDI calculation. Then, a dynamic linear spatio-temporal model (DLSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to forecast SHDI. Although results indicated that both models were able to forecast SHDI in different time scales, the DLSTM was far superior in longer lead times. The DLSTM could forecast SHDI up to 6 months ahead while ANN was only capable of forecasting SHDI up to 2 months ahead appropriately. For short lead times (1–6 months), the DLSTM has performed nearly perfect in test phase and CE oscillates between 0.97 and 0.86 while for ANN modeling, CE is between 0.72 and 0.07. However, the performance of DLSTM and ANN reduced considerably in medium lead times (7–12 months). Overall, the DLSTM is a powerful tool for appropriately forecasting SHDI at short time scales; a major advantage required for drought early warning systems.  相似文献   

Identification and prioritization of sub-watersheds for land and water management using InVEST SDR model: Rmelriver basin,Tunisia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sana Bouguerra  Sihem Jebari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(15):348

Tunisia presents many favorable conditions for the outbreak of water erosion because of its climatic and physical characteristics. This phenomenon represents a serious threat to the natural resources of soil and water. The aim of the present study is to identify the most vulnerable areas in order to help managers implement an effective management program. Thematic layers and parameters were integrated in the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs) SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio). Soil loss and sediment yield were calculated by the model and compared to observed data. The Rmel river basin was divided into 17 sub-watersheds using the dam axis as the main outlet. Results reveal that approximately 60% of the basin presents soil loss more than 5 ton/ha/year. Soil erosion map demonstrates that soil erosion risk increases with increased slope gradient, especially in agricultural lands. Sub-catchment prioritizations have been fixed based on soil erosion risk. Results show that sub-catchment 16 presents the highest soil loss with a value of 65 ton/ha/year. Sub-catchment presenting high soil erosion risk needs to give a high priority in conservation planning.  相似文献   

Numerical study on static and seismic stability of breakwaters on soft granular marine deposits against deep failure     

Mehdi Veiskarami  Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei  Mehran Karimpour Fard  Tina Pourramezan 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(1):42-51

Marine structures which cover a wide range of offshore and onshore structures are often subjected to different external and internal forces against which a proper design should be performed. Among many, breakwaters constructed over a relatively loose agglomerate of granular soils are much prone to deep seated failure extended beneath the foundation. This type of failure has been given less attention in conventional design approaches. Stability analysis of such failures is the main subject of this research which includes both the static and the seismic stability of breakwaters over granular marine soils. As the subsoil strata in sea beds often comprise loose sand deposits, it is more convenient to assume a rather small angle of dilation, at least at failure, which certainly reduces the potential to resist geotechnical instabilities. The method of stress characteristics along with slight modifications to handle this issue has been used to assess the overall stability of breakwaters against deep seated failures. Investigations revealed that while even under static condition, there is certain potential of failure, under seismic condition, the risk is quite very high. A series of design charts are also developed presenting the factor of stability as a measure of safety against such failure.  相似文献   

Lithological mapping with multispectral data–setup and application of a spectral database for rocks in the Balakot area,Northern Pakistan     

Michael Fuchs  Adnan A. Awan  Sardar S. Akhtar  Ijaz Ahmad  Simon Sadiq  Asif Razzak  Naghmah Haider 《山地科学学报》2017,14(5):948-963

In the frame of landslide susceptibility assessment, a spectral library was created to support the identification of materials confined to a particular region using remote sensing images. This library, called Pakistan spectral library (pklib) version 0.1, contains the analysis data of sixty rock samples taken in the Balakot region in Northern Pakistan. The spectral library is implemented as SQLite database. Structure and naming are inspired by the convention system of the ASTER Spectral Library. Usability, application and benefit of the pklib were evaluated and depicted taking two approaches, the multivariate and the spectral based. The spectral information were used to create indices. The indices were applied to Landsat and ASTER data to support the spatial delineation of outcropping rock sequences in stratigraphic formations. The application of the indices introduced in this paper helps to identify spots where specific lithological characteristics occur. Especially in areas with sparse or missing detailed geological mapping, the spectral discrimination via remote sensing data can speed up the survey. The library can be used not only to support the improvement of factor maps for landslide susceptibility analysis, but also to provide a geoscientific basis to further analyze the lithological spot in numerous regions in the Hindu Kush.  相似文献   

Application of singular value decomposition (SVD) and semi-discrete decomposition (SDD) techniques in clustering of geochemical data: an environmental study in central Iran   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hamid Zekri  Ahmad Reza Mokhtari  David R. Cohen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):1947-1960

Common multivariate clustering techniques are ineffective in identifying subtle patterns of correlation, and clustering of variables or samples within complex geochemical datasets. This study compares the combination of singular value decomposition (SVD) and semi discrete decomposition (SDD), with that of hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), to examine patterns within a multielement soil geochemical dataset from an agricultural area in the vicinity of Pb–Zn mining operations in central Iran. SVD was used to both identify patterns of correlation between variables and samples and to “denoise” the data, and SDD to simultaneously cluster the samples and variables. The results reveal various spatial associations of mining waste-associated metals As, Ba, Pb and Zn, and within the remaining elements whose distribution is largely controlled by the major oxides. SVD–SDD was found to be superior to HCA, in its ability to detect subtle clusters in soil geochemistry indicative of mine-related contamination in the study area.  相似文献   

Simulating low and high streamflow driven by snowmelt in an insufficiently gauged alpine basin     

Feiyun Zhang  Sajjad Ahmad  Hongqi Zhang  Xin Zhao  Xianwei Feng  Lanhai Li 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):59-75

Snowmelt and water infiltration are two important processes of the hydrological cycle in alpine basins where snowmelt water is a main contributor of streamflow. In insufficiently gauged basins, hydrologic modeling is a useful approach to understand the runoff formation process and to simulate streamflow. In this study, an existing hydrologic model based on the principles of system dynamics was modified by using the effective cumulative temperature (>0 °C) to calculate snowmelt rate, and the soil temperature to adjust the influence of the soil’s physical state on water infiltration. This modified model was used to simulate streamflows in the Kaidu River basin from 1982 to 2002, including normal, high, and low flows categorized by the Z index. Sensitivity analyses, visual inspection, and statistical measures were employed to evaluate the capability of the model to simulate various components of the streamflow. Results showed that the modified model was robust, and able to simulate the three categories of flows well. The model’s ability to reproduce streamflow in low-flow and normal-flow years was better than that in high-flow years. The model was also able to simulate the baseflow. Further, its ability to simulate spring-peak flow was much better than its ability to simulate the summer-peak flow. This study could provide useful information for water managers in determining water allocations as well as in managing water resources.  相似文献   

Response of a 2-story test-bed structure for the seismic evaluation of nonstructural systems     

Siavash?SoroushianEmail author  E.?“Manos”?Maragakis  Arash?E.?Zaghi  Esmaeel?Rahmanishamsi  Ahmad?M.?Itani  Gokhan?Pekcan 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2016,15(1):19-29

A full-scale, two-story, two-by-one bay, steel braced-frame was subjected to a number of unidirectional ground motions using three shake tables at the UNR-NEES site. The test-bed frame was designed to study the seismic performance of nonstructural systems including steel-framed gypsum partition walls, suspended ceilings and fire sprinkler systems. The frame can be configured to perform as an elastic or inelastic system to generate large floor accelerations or large inter story drift, respectively. In this study, the dynamic performance of the linear and nonlinear test-beds was comprehensively studied. The seismic performance of nonstructural systems installed in the linear and nonlinear test-beds were assessed during extreme excitations. In addition, the dynamic interactions of the test-bed and installed nonstructural systems are investigated.  相似文献   

The first electric field pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning discharges     

Noor Azlinda Ahmad  M. Fernando  Z.A. Baharudin  M. Rahman  V. Cooray  Ziad Saleh  Joseph R. Dwyer  Hamid K. Rassoul 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(2-3):143-150

In this study, the first electric field pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges were analyzed and compared with other pulses of cloud discharges. Thirty eight cloud discharges and 101 cloud-to-ground discharges have been studied in this analysis. Pulses in cloud discharges were classified as ‘small’, ‘medium’ and ‘large’, depending upon the value of their relative amplitude with respect to that of the average amplitude of the five largest pulses in the flash. We found that parameters, such as pulse duration, rise time, zero crossing time and full-width at half-maximum (FWHMs) of the first pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges are similar to small pulses that appear in the later stage of cloud discharges. Hence, we suggest that the mechanism of the first pulse of cloud and cloud-to-ground discharges and the mechanism of pulses at the later stage of cloud discharges could be the same.  相似文献   

Malachite Green Adsorption onto Chitosan Coated Bentonite Beads: Isotherms,Kinetics and Mechanism     

Wan Saime Wan Ngah  Noorul Farhana Md Ariff  Azhan Hashim  Megat Ahmad Kamal Megat Hanafiah 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2010,38(4):394-400

The removal of Malachite green (MG) from aqueous solutions by cross‐linked chitosan coated bentonite (CCB) beads was investigated and the CCB beads were characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and X‐ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Solubility and swelling tests were performed in order to determine the stability of the CCB beads in acidic solution, basic solution and distilled water. The amount of MG adsorbed was shown to be influenced by the initial pH of the solution, contact time and the initial MG concentration. A kinetic study indicated that a pseudo‐second‐order model agreed well with the experimental data. From the Langmuir isotherm model, the maximum adsorption capacity of MG was found to be 435.0 mg g^–1. Desorption tests were carried out at different concentrations of EDTA, H₂SO₄ and NaOH. However, all desorbing solutions showed zero recovery of MG at all concentrations.  相似文献   

An estimation of the height system bias parameter <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis><Subscript>0</Subscript> using least squares collocation from observed gravity and GPS-levelling data     

Muhammad Sadiq  Carl C. Tscherning  Zulfiqar Ahmad 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2009,53(3):375-388

This paper deals with the analysis of gravity anomaly and precise levelling in conjunction with GPS-Levelling data for the computation of a gravimetric geoid and an estimate of the height system bias parameter N_o for the vertical datum in Pakistan by means of least squares collocation technique. The long term objective is to obtain a regional geoid (or quasi-geoid) modeling using a combination of local data with a high degree and order Earth gravity model (EGM) and to determine a bias (if there is one) with respect to a global mean sea surface. An application of collocation with the optimal covariance parameters has facilitated to achieve gravimetric height anomalies in a global geocentric datum. Residual terrain modeling (RTM) technique has been used in combination with the EGM96 for the reduction and smoothing of the gravity data. A value for the bias parameter N_o has been estimated with reference to the local GPS-Levelling datum that appears to be 0.705 m with 0.07 m mean square error. The gravimetric height anomalies were compared with height anomalies obtained from GPS-Levelling stations using least square collocation with and without bias adjustment. The bias adjustment minimizes the difference between the gravimetric height anomalies with respect to residual GPS-Levelling data and the standard deviation of the differences drops from 35 cm to 2.6 cm. The results of this study suggest that N_o adjustment may be a good alternative for the fitting of the final gravimetric geoid as is generally done when using FFT methods.  相似文献